Orinda, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

060
FXUS66 KMTR 132110
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
210 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

 - A pattern change will bring a more robust marine layer, cooler
   temperatures, and some morning drizzle today.

 - Strong NW winds will arrive to the coast Thursday and spread
   inland Friday.

 - Temperatures will climb slightly through Friday before cooling
   again this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued at 200 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025
(This afternoon through Thursday)

Decent 24 hour trends this afternoon weather wise across the
forecast area. We`ve been discussing the pattern change for a few
days now and this is it. Temperatures continue to cool across the
region. Some interior locations are 10 to 15 degrees cooler than
Tuesday. All that being said, far interior E Bay and far interior
Central Coast temperatures are cooler, but still in the 90s with
a 10-20% chc at breaking 100 degrees. On the flip side, going to
the coast? Bring a jacket. Clouds linger and temps are stuck in
the upper 50s to 60s.

No major changes through the short term. Additional cooling with
persistent marine layer.


&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued at 203 PM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)

An upper level trough will become anchored over the west through
the weekend and into early next week. Basically, a rinse and
repeat forecast and pattern we`ve see a lot of this summer.
Night/morning clouds clearing to the coast each afternoon. Cooler
coast and seasonably cool inland, even with sunshine. Only weather
impact of note will be increasing winds Thursday night and
Friday. While upper level troughing dominates, weak surface high
pressure noses into the CA/OR. As such, the N-S gradient ramps up
along NorCal. In response to the increase pressure gradient winds
increase. Not strong enough for a wind advisory, but still windy
along the coast, oriented N-S valleys, and inland gaps/passes.
Gusts of 30-40 mph are possible. Winds finally ease by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1040 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

A mix bag of IFR/MVFR conditions across the region as the marine
layer has deepened to around 2000 feet. Expecting inland terminals
to return to VFR within the next few hours, however there is
moderate confidence for MVFR ceilings to persist throughout much
of the day near the coast. Onshore winds increase once again this
afternoon, slightly stronger than yesterday. However, winds are
forecast to ease across the Monterey Bay terminals after sunset
and the Bay Area terminals early Thursday morning. There is high
confidence for IFR/MVFR ceilings to make an early return this
evening and lower into Thursday morning around the Monterey Bay
terminals.

Vicinity of SFO...MVFR. Low clouds are forecast to scatter out
and/or clear by 19Z-21Z and return to VFR. Onshore flow will be
slightly stronger today compared to yesterday as a trough of low
pressure impacts the region. As such, expecting a similar return
of MVFR ceilings this evening that will lower to IFR through mid-
morning on Thursday. Once low clouds clear, onshore winds are
forecast to increase once again Thursday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...IFR/MVFR. Low clouds are forecast to
scatter out at SNS within the next hour. Meanwhile, IFR conditions
persist at MRY and should scatter out by around 21Z. However,
high confidence for an early return of IFR ceilings this evening
before lowering to LIFR early Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 858 AM PDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Moderate northwesterly breezes today will increase to become fresh
to strong on Thursday. Widespread hazardous conditions will be
present Thursday with gale force gusts across the outer waters
and along the coastal jet region of Point Reyes and near-gale
force gusts across the rest of the inner waters. Moderate seas
will increase to become rough for the inner waters and outer
waters through Friday.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for SF Bay N of Bay
     Bridge.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena
     to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM PDT Thursday
     for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon
     Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

     Gale Warning from 9 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MM
LONG TERM....MM
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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